Luke Winn of Sports Illustrated files this report using efficiency numbers
Winn uses Ken Pomeroy’s data to analyze the AP poll to try to identify false contenders and sleepers.
I believe that Winn could have presented his data a little differently by using a scattergram similar to the tempo-free aerials that the Big Ten Wonk used on his site.
I decided to convert the data into something similar so I made up the chart below. Like Winn, I used Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiency numbers but I inverted the defensive numbers in order to have a higher percentage reflect better defense. Here’s the chart.
The better a team is offensively the higher on the y azis they will be. The better a team is defensively the further right they will be. Thus, the objective is to get in the upper right quadrant (move your cursor over the dot to id the team). Conversely, you don’t want to be in the lower left quadrant.
Winn flags the teams on the left (Texas, Vanderbilt, Butler, Villanova, Ole Miss, Rhode Island, and Oregon) as suspect contenders because of their poor D.
I would submit that the right way to look at it would be along a diagonal (I’d suggest that the 125/125 line looks like a likely candidate). When you do that, Texas offense moves them off of the suspect list but Southern Cal’s lack of offense ID’s them as a probable replacement.