This comparison is probably the closest one that I have looked at all season.
Penn State has a slight edge in effective FG% but they are worse than Purdue in effective FG% defense (the delta between offense and defense is almost identical, +1.1% for PSU, +1.0% for Purdue).
PSU protects the ball better than Purdue but Purdue forces more turnovers. For the game, Purdue projects to be +1 over Penn State.
Penn State has a decisive edge in the offensive rebounding, while they are virtually dead even in defensive rebounding. This would look to be an area that PSU can exploit.
Purdue is noticeably better than PSU at getting to the free throw line and making their shots. However, from Purdue’s perspective, that’s a hard criteria to leverage your way away from home.
This game could come down to the charity stripe just as the Minnesota game did, in which case it would provide the perfect opportunity for Penn State to exorcise those free throw demons.
My power rating prediction for this game calls it PSU 69 Purdue 68. Were this game in West Lafayette, the Boilermakers would get the call.