Given how close these two teams are in the Pomeroy (Michigan is #107 nationally, PSU is #108) and Sagarin (Michigan is #126 and PSU is #129) ranking systems, I guess it should come as no surprise that the Four Factor Analysis doesn’t uncover any huge secrets.
PSU’s effective field goal percentage is better than Michigan’s but Michigan’s effective field goal percentage defense is better. Michigan has a slight edge on the delta between the two but the net result would be less than a point a game.
Rebounding looks to be pretty even so I wouldn’t expect much of a difference between the two teams tonight.
Turnover rate’s would suggest that PSU should get about one more turnover than Michigan. Surprisingly, our field goal shooting over the last few games has finally gotten us some respectability in that area. We are actually now fourth in the conference in FT proficiency which measures a teams ability to get to the line and make free throws (undoubtedly that number is somewhat inflated by the Michigan State game at the BJC when we lived on the line). The stats suggest that we should pick up a couple of points more from the line than the Wolverines.
So, the outlook for tonight is that Michigan shoots slightly better than us but we get off more shots (because of turnovers) with the net being we both score about the same number of points from the field. The difference winds up being made foul shots and PSU wins by 2-3.