Against the Odds (Opening Round)

Crystal BallNow that Penn State’s season is over and the NCAA’s are hear, I thought I’d have a little fun with my power rankings (or maybe I should say Ken Pomeroy’s since my ratings are lock step in sync with his).

I’ve been predicting game scores all year long but have never actually compared them to the Vegas odds. I’m going to try a little experiment with the tournament. I’m going to compare my predicted spread with the Vegas spread. If my number differs from the Vegas number by three or more points, I’ll list the game. Anything less than three I’ll just stay away from.

Here are the games that fit that bill for the first round (in declining order of confidence). I list the game with the Vegas line, then my pick with the difference between my line and the Vegas line in parenthesis so you get a feel for the level of confidence.

  • Wisconsin over Cal St-Fullerton by 11.5 – pick Wisconsin (8.5) – win
  • Texas over Austin Peay by 16.5 – pick Texas (4.7) – win
  • Louisville over Boise St by 13.5 – pick Louisville (4.7) – win
  • Southern Cal over Kansas St by 2.0 – pick Kansas St (4.5) – win
  • Duke over Belmont by 19.5 – pick Duke (4.4) – loss
  • UCLA over Miss Valley St by 32 – pick UCLA (3.9) – win
  • Xavier over Georgia by 7.5 – pick Xavier (3.8) – win
  • Pitt over Oral Roberts by 10.0 – pick Oral Roberts (3.6) – loss
  • Davidson over Gonzaga by 2.0 – pick Gonzaga (3.4) – loss
  • Kent St over UNLV by 2.0 – pick UNLV (3.2) – win
  • Kentucky over Marquette by 4.5 – pick Kentucky (3.1) – loss
  • Washington St over Winthrop by 8.5 – pick Wash St (3.1) – win

This should give me a little more incentive to pay attention as I watch the games.

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