Happy Valley Hoops » Michigan

Game Predictions 03/09/08

UncleLar — Sun, 09 Mar 2008 16:27:01 +0000

Regular season ends with Penn State going for its fifth straight home win which I sure most fans thought would be an impossibility once Claxton went down for the season in the third Big Ten game of the season.

Game Predictions:

Ohio State 64.6 Michigan State 64.3 (I guess OSU wins in OT)
Indiana 75 Penn State 65
Purdue 89 Michigan 61

Who will PSU play in the Big Tens?

UncleLar — Sun, 09 Mar 2008 09:35:06 +0000

No matter what happens on today, PSU goes into the record books with a seventh place finish. What’s still undecided is their tournament seed.

If PSU beats Indiana on Sunday, they finish 7th alone and play Illinois (with the winner getting Indiana in the next round)

If PSU loses and Michigan loses, then PSU and Iowa tie for 7th. Iowa gets the 7th seed by virtue of of their win over Ohio State (Iowa is 1-1 against OSU, while we are 0-1). The head to head is irrelevant among PSU, Iowa, and Michigan because each of the teams went 1-1 against the other two, so the tiebreaker reverts to best winning percentage against the highest ranked team(or combined teams in the case of ties), continuing down through the standings until a difference is found (PSU and Iowa are both 0-2 against Wisconsin, 0-2 against Indiana, 0-2 against Purdue, and 1-1 against MSU, the tie is broken when you get to OSU). So Iowa would play Illinois and we would play Michigan (with the winner getting Wisconsin).

If PSU loses and Michigan wins, then PSU, Iowa, and Michigan all tie for 7th. Michigan would get the 7th seed because they would be 0-1 vs Indiana while PSU and Iowa would be 0-2 (for tiebreaking procedures when comparing records 0-1 is better than 0-2 and 2-0 is better than 1-0). Iowa would then get the 8th seed since they own the tiebreaker over us (see previous scenario). Michigan would then play Illinois and we would get Iowa (with the winner again getting Wisconsin).

BTN Report on Michigan at PSU

UncleLar — Sun, 02 Mar 2008 15:23:56 +0000

Includes a nice intro on Claxton at senior night.

Four Factor Analysis Tool (Mich at PSU)

UncleLar — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 20:33:57 +0000

Given how close these two teams are in the Pomeroy (Michigan is #107 nationally, PSU is #108) and Sagarin (Michigan is #126 and PSU is #129) ranking systems, I guess it should come as no surprise that the Four Factor Analysis doesn’t uncover any huge secrets.

PSU’s effective field goal percentage is better than Michigan’s but Michigan’s effective field goal percentage defense is better. Michigan has a slight edge on the delta between the two but the net result would be less than a point a game.

Rebounding looks to be pretty even so I wouldn’t expect much of a difference between the two teams tonight.

Turnover rate’s would suggest that PSU should get about one more turnover than Michigan. Surprisingly, our field goal shooting over the last few games has finally gotten us some respectability in that area. We are actually now fourth in the conference in FT proficiency which measures a teams ability to get to the line and make free throws (undoubtedly that number is somewhat inflated by the Michigan State game at the BJC when we lived on the line). The stats suggest that we should pick up a couple of points more from the line than the Wolverines.

So, the outlook for tonight is that Michigan shoots slightly better than us but we get off more shots (because of turnovers) with the net being we both score about the same number of points from the field. The difference winds up being made foul shots and PSU wins by 2-3.

Game Predictions 03/01/08

UncleLar — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 19:13:20 +0000

Tonight is senior night for Penn State and the rumor mill is that fallen star Geary Claxton will suit up and make a symbolic start. Supposedly an arrangement has been struck where Michigan will allow PSU to win the jump, the refs will call an immediate time out, and Claxton will be removed from the game. If true, it’s a nice gesture by John Beilein’s squad to give the Happy Valley faithful a chance to honor their star on senior night.

In other action, Ohio State needs a win at Minnesota to improve their NCAA hopes. A loss here would jeopardize their chances for an at large bid.

Game Predictions:

PSU 70 Michigan 67
Purdue 76 Northwestern 57
Ohio State 65 Minnesota 64
Illinois 58 Iowa 54

Game Predictions 02/26/08

UncleLar — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 21:15:54 +0000

Northwestern has to have their eye on this game tonight at Michigan as one of their few remaining opportunities to avoid a season whitewashing. Ohio State will be looking to find out if the funk that Indiana played in that kept Northwestern in the game until the end still remains.

Game Predictions:

Michigan 72 Northwestern 63
Indiana 69 Ohio State 62

Game Predictions 02/24/08

UncleLar — Sun, 24 Feb 2008 17:14:48 +0000

Both the PSU men and women are on the road as THON takes over the Bryce Jordan Center. Penn State still has a shot at the sixth spot in the Big Ten which would give them a favorable seed, most likely against Northwestern, in the Big Ten tournament but a win over Minnesota today would be a must for that to happen.

Game predictions:

Minnesota 73 Penn State 63
Wisconsin 62 Ohio State 59

Battle for eighth in the power rankings

UncleLar — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 21:57:42 +0000

#	Team	Pace	Off	Def	Pwr	Rank
8	Iowa	60.5	0.97	0.90	1.0792	107
9	Penn St.	65.2	1.05	0.98	1.0772	110
10	Michigan	65.8	1.07	0.99	1.0769	111

The teams are so close that the calculation actually has to be carried out to the ten thousandth decimal place to sort out the 8th through 10th places. Michigan’s loss to Minnesota last night dropped them back to tenth.

Game Prediction 02/21/08

UncleLar — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 23:28:30 +0000

Only one Thursday game being played tonight. Michigan travels to Minnesota.

Game Prediction:

Minnesota 75 Michigan 65

Game Prediction 02/17/08

UncleLar — Sun, 17 Feb 2008 19:28:23 +0000

Michigan looks for their third win in a row when they host traditional rival Michigan in a Sunday afternoon game.

Game Prediction:

Ohio State 69 Michigan 61