Happy Valley Hoops » Purdue

Round of 32 Updated Predictions

UncleLar — Sat, 22 Mar 2008 13:40:27 +0000

The first round saw me finish a highly respectable 26-6 (and atop my pool). Here are the latest predictions for the second round.

The power ranking adjustments do call for one change from my previous predictions. I now have Stanford defeating Marquette.

Round of 32
North Carolina	78	Arkansas	70	W
Notre Dame	66	Washington St.	69	W
Oklahoma	59	Louisville	65	W
Butler	68	Tennessee	71	W
Kansas	76	Nevada Las Vegas	60	W
Villanova	71	Siena	65	W
Kansas St.	62	Wisconsin	66	W
Davidson	62	Georgetown	68	L
Memphis	69	Mississippi St.	60	W
Michigan St.	69	Pittsburgh	68	W
Marquette	64	Stanford	65	W
Miami FL	66	Texas	74	W
UCLA	66	Texas A&M	59	W
Western Kentucky	67	San Diego St.	64	W
Purdue	65	Xavier	66	W
West Virginia	68	Duke	71	L

Tournament Predictions

UncleLar — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 21:08:48 +0000

Here are the picks, with projected scores, all the way through the tournament based on the power rankings formula. I will update the picks after each round.

Day One (16-0)
Georgia	60	Xavier	72	W
Portland St.	58	Kansas	84	W
Temple	64	Michigan St.	73	W
Kentucky	60	Marquette	67	W
Baylor	69	Purdue	73	W
Kent St.	64	Nevada Las Vegas	65	W
Oral Roberts	62	Pittsburgh	68	W
Cornell	60	Stanford	77	W
Kansas St.	69	Southern California	67	W
Belmont	64	Duke	88	W
Winthrop	51	Washington St.	62	W
Texas A&M	64	Brigham Young	60	W
Cal St. Fullerton	60	Wisconsin	79	W
Arizona	67	West Virginia	68	W
George Mason	67	Notre Dame	76	W
Mississippi Valley St.	46	UCLA	82	W

Day Two
American	62	Tennessee	82	W
Davidson	67	Gonzaga	69	L
St. Mary’s	68	Miami FL	69	W
Western Kentucky	66	Drake	73	L
South Alabama	64	Butler	69	W
MD Baltimore County	58	Georgetown	78	W
Austin Peay	60	Texas	81	W
San Diego St.	63	Connecticut	72	L
Mount St. Mary’s	60	North Carolina	84	W
Saint Joseph’s	66	Oklahoma	69	W
Siena	67	Vanderbilt	75	L
Oregon	70	Mississippi St.	71	W
Arkansas	66	Indiana	70	L
Boise St.	61	Louisville	79	W
Villanova	65	Clemson	71	L
Texas Arlington	55	Memphis	81	W

Round of 32
North Carolina	77	Indiana	72	W
Notre Dame	66	Washington St.	69	W
Oklahoma	61	Louisville	65	W
Butler	66	Tennessee	71	W
Kansas	76	Nevada Las Vegas	58	W
Clemson	73	Vanderbilt	68	n/a
Kansas St.	63	Wisconsin	67	W
Gonzaga	62	Georgetown	67	L
Memphis	69	Mississippi St.	60	W
Michigan St.	69	Pittsburgh	67	W
Marquette	64	Stanford	63	L
Miami FL	67	Texas	74	W
UCLA	66	Texas A&M	60	W
Drake	70	Connecticut	71	n/a
Purdue	65	Xavier	66	W
West Virginia	67	Duke	72	L

Sweet Sixteen
North Carolina	70	Washington St.	68	W
Louisville	68	Tennessee	67	W
Kansas	74	Clemson	63	W
Wisconsin	61	Georgetown	58	L
Memphis	69	Michigan St.	63	W
Marquette	67	Texas	68	W
UCLA	72	Connecticut	65	W
Xavier	69	Duke	72	L

Elite Eight
North Carolina	72	Louisville	70	W
Kansas	66	Wisconsin	61	W
Memphis	69	Texas	66	W
UCLA	71	Duke	68	W

Final Four
North Carolina	70	Kansas	78	W
Memphis	65	UCLA	66	L

Championship
Kansas	69	UCLA	65	W

Illinois finally wakes up

UncleLar — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 06:55:16 +0000

The Illini have been headscratchers all season long. Their power rankings would suggest that they should be about .500 in conference but as we all know they’ve played well below that level. In the Pomeroy rankings, there’s only been a very small difference between Purdue and Illinois all year (which perhaps indicates just how good a job that Matt Painter has done with the Boilermakers).

For their B10 tournament matchup, Purdue was predicted to just be a three point favorite over Illinois (which means they would be even on Illinois’s home court). Illinois finally stepped up and got the big win. I expect them to top Minnesota today later today and actually make it to the finals.

Either way, the Illinois/Minnesota semifinal means headaches for the NCAA selection committee. One of those two teams will be in the finals and neither are projected to have NCAA bids. That means the tournament selection committee will have to work on contingency plans for what happens if one of the two actually claim the Big Ten auto bid.

Game Predictions 03/09/08

UncleLar — Sun, 09 Mar 2008 16:27:01 +0000

Regular season ends with Penn State going for its fifth straight home win which I sure most fans thought would be an impossibility once Claxton went down for the season in the third Big Ten game of the season.

Game Predictions:

Ohio State 64.6 Michigan State 64.3 (I guess OSU wins in OT)
Indiana 75 Penn State 65
Purdue 89 Michigan 61

Game Predictions 03/01/08

UncleLar — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 19:13:20 +0000

Tonight is senior night for Penn State and the rumor mill is that fallen star Geary Claxton will suit up and make a symbolic start. Supposedly an arrangement has been struck where Michigan will allow PSU to win the jump, the refs will call an immediate time out, and Claxton will be removed from the game. If true, it’s a nice gesture by John Beilein’s squad to give the Happy Valley faithful a chance to honor their star on senior night.

In other action, Ohio State needs a win at Minnesota to improve their NCAA hopes. A loss here would jeopardize their chances for an at large bid.

Game Predictions:

PSU 70 Michigan 67
Purdue 76 Northwestern 57
Ohio State 65 Minnesota 64
Illinois 58 Iowa 54

Game Predictions 02/19/08

UncleLar — Wed, 20 Feb 2008 00:08:53 +0000

Two games tonight with the marquis matchup being Purdue at Indiana with first place in the B10 conference at stake. Northwestern also visits Iowa.

Game Predictions:

Indiana 70 Purdue 64
Iowa 64 Northwestern 55

Game Predictions 02/16/08

UncleLar — Sat, 16 Feb 2008 17:52:20 +0000

After a week off, PSU faces a must win situation when Illinois travels to Happy Valley. Two weeks ago in their last home game, the Lions had a nice upset win over Michigan State. However, their failed to sustain that momentum dropping two since including in their last outing, a very winnable game at Michigan, According to the power rankings, the under achieving Illini are five point favorites (Vegas also has the Illini at 3 1/2) over the staggering Nits.

Game Predictions:

Illinois 67 Penn State 62
Indiana 69 Michigan State 64
Wisconsin 71 Minnesota 68
Purdue 73 Northwestern 59

Purdue/Illinois Power Ranking Update

UncleLar — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 22:36:47 +0000

Given that both teams won last night I thought it would be interesting to take a look at their updated rankings (I also changed the timeline so it would be twice a week, after they both played).

Looks familiar – they both track together.

Big Ten Power Rankings (02/12/08)

UncleLar — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 00:51:06 +0000

Purdue continues their unlikely climb through the power rankings moving up to 26th according to Pomeroy. Still they aren’t where you would traditionally expect the outright B10 conference leader to sit. Nor are they getting the votes in the polls that you would expect (19th in the AP and 23rd in the Coaches).

#	Team	Pace	Off	Def	Pwr	Rank
1	Wisconsin	64.2	1.12	0.82	1.37	6
2	Indiana	68.0	1.14	0.87	1.30	17
3	Michigan St.	66.3	1.13	0.88	1.29	20
4	Ohio St.	64.9	1.09	0.87	1.26	25
5	Purdue	68.3	1.11	0.88	1.26	26
6	Illinois	64.2	1.06	0.88	1.21	37
7	Minnesota	69.6	1.09	0.90	1.21	39
8	Penn St.	66.1	1.06	0.97	1.10	97
9	Iowa	60.7	0.98	0.90	1.09	102
10	Michigan	65.6	1.06	1.01	1.05	121
11	Northwestern	63.5	1.02	1.04	0.99	168

What’s amazing is how much Purdue has been able to improve over the course of Big Ten play. At the beginning of conference play, Purdue’s power ranking put them at 82nd. They’ve amazingly manages to move up an almost 50 spots to 26th.

In the meantime, the season has been a real head scratcher for Illinois. For the last month, while Purdue has been winning games and moving UP the power rankings. Illinois has been losing games but tracking along with them. In fact it wasn’t until February that Purdue actually passed Illinois in the rankings. How can that be you ask? Ken Pomeroy dedicated much of a column last week in response to that very question.

Plotting the Pomeroy rankings of the two squads since Big Ten play started really highlights how incongruous Illinois’ season has been.

How could you possibly look at that chart and conclude that one team is atop the conference while the other is fighting to stay out of the cellar?

I keep waiting for the Illini to step up and start winning. Why do I have this horrible feeling it’s going to happen this Saturday in Happy Valley?

Game Predictions 02/12/08

UncleLar — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 23:00:35 +0000

Purdue pulled a shocker in Madison over the weekend, now they’ll be out to prove they’re for real when they entertain Michigan State tonight.

Game Predictions:

Purdue 67 Michigan State 65
Minnestota 65 Illinois 62