Happy Valley Hoops » Wisconsin

Jim Jackson previews the NBA draft

UncleLar — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 10:05:42 +0000

DownloadJackson gives his assessment of Eric Gordon et al.

Final Four Predictions

UncleLar — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 16:32:40 +0000

My prediction juggernaut rolled on with a perfect Elite eight:

16-0 on the first day
10-6 on day two
14-2 in the Round of 32
7-1 for the Sweet Sixteen
4-0 for the Elite Eight
51-9 overall

Memphis has improved their power rankings to almost draw dead even with UCLA. I have the Bruins as a slight favorite over Memphis.

Game Predictions

Kansas 77 North Carolina 73 – win
UCLA 65.8 Memphis 65.5 – loss

Sweet Sixteen Game Predictions

UncleLar — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 17:06:22 +0000

I’m absolutely thrilled the way the predictions have gone so far.

16-0 on the first day
10-6 on day two
14-2 in the Round of 32
40-8 overall

I’m looking forward to seeing how the Sweet Sixteen play out.

Here are the picks:

Sweet Sixteen
North Carolina	71	Washington St.	69	W
Louisville	69	Tennessee	67	W
Kansas	77	Villanova	62	W
Wisconsin	68	Davidson	59	L
Memphis	68	Michigan St.	64	W
Stanford	66.7	Texas	67.0	W
UCLA	73	Western Kentucky	59	W
Xavier	67.0	West Virginia	66.6	W

Round of 32 Updated Predictions

UncleLar — Sat, 22 Mar 2008 13:40:27 +0000

The first round saw me finish a highly respectable 26-6 (and atop my pool). Here are the latest predictions for the second round.

The power ranking adjustments do call for one change from my previous predictions. I now have Stanford defeating Marquette.

Round of 32
North Carolina	78	Arkansas	70	W
Notre Dame	66	Washington St.	69	W
Oklahoma	59	Louisville	65	W
Butler	68	Tennessee	71	W
Kansas	76	Nevada Las Vegas	60	W
Villanova	71	Siena	65	W
Kansas St.	62	Wisconsin	66	W
Davidson	62	Georgetown	68	L
Memphis	69	Mississippi St.	60	W
Michigan St.	69	Pittsburgh	68	W
Marquette	64	Stanford	65	W
Miami FL	66	Texas	74	W
UCLA	66	Texas A&M	59	W
Western Kentucky	67	San Diego St.	64	W
Purdue	65	Xavier	66	W
West Virginia	68	Duke	71	L

Against the Odds (Opening Round)

UncleLar — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 23:05:06 +0000

Now that Penn State’s season is over and the NCAA’s are hear, I thought I’d have a little fun with my power rankings (or maybe I should say Ken Pomeroy’s since my ratings are lock step in sync with his).

I’ve been predicting game scores all year long but have never actually compared them to the Vegas odds. I’m going to try a little experiment with the tournament. I’m going to compare my predicted spread with the Vegas spread. If my number differs from the Vegas number by three or more points, I’ll list the game. Anything less than three I’ll just stay away from.

Here are the games that fit that bill for the first round (in declining order of confidence). I list the game with the Vegas line, then my pick with the difference between my line and the Vegas line in parenthesis so you get a feel for the level of confidence.

Wisconsin over Cal St-Fullerton by 11.5 – pick Wisconsin (8.5) – win
Texas over Austin Peay by 16.5 – pick Texas (4.7) – win
Louisville over Boise St by 13.5 – pick Louisville (4.7) – win
Southern Cal over Kansas St by 2.0 – pick Kansas St (4.5) – win
Duke over Belmont by 19.5 – pick Duke (4.4) – loss
UCLA over Miss Valley St by 32 – pick UCLA (3.9) – win
Xavier over Georgia by 7.5 – pick Xavier (3.8) – win
Pitt over Oral Roberts by 10.0 – pick Oral Roberts (3.6) – loss
Davidson over Gonzaga by 2.0 – pick Gonzaga (3.4) – loss
Kent St over UNLV by 2.0 – pick UNLV (3.2) – win
Kentucky over Marquette by 4.5 – pick Kentucky (3.1) – loss
Washington St over Winthrop by 8.5 – pick Wash St (3.1) – win

This should give me a little more incentive to pay attention as I watch the games.

Tournament Predictions

UncleLar — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 21:08:48 +0000

Here are the picks, with projected scores, all the way through the tournament based on the power rankings formula. I will update the picks after each round.

Day One (16-0)
Georgia	60	Xavier	72	W
Portland St.	58	Kansas	84	W
Temple	64	Michigan St.	73	W
Kentucky	60	Marquette	67	W
Baylor	69	Purdue	73	W
Kent St.	64	Nevada Las Vegas	65	W
Oral Roberts	62	Pittsburgh	68	W
Cornell	60	Stanford	77	W
Kansas St.	69	Southern California	67	W
Belmont	64	Duke	88	W
Winthrop	51	Washington St.	62	W
Texas A&M	64	Brigham Young	60	W
Cal St. Fullerton	60	Wisconsin	79	W
Arizona	67	West Virginia	68	W
George Mason	67	Notre Dame	76	W
Mississippi Valley St.	46	UCLA	82	W

Day Two
American	62	Tennessee	82	W
Davidson	67	Gonzaga	69	L
St. Mary’s	68	Miami FL	69	W
Western Kentucky	66	Drake	73	L
South Alabama	64	Butler	69	W
MD Baltimore County	58	Georgetown	78	W
Austin Peay	60	Texas	81	W
San Diego St.	63	Connecticut	72	L
Mount St. Mary’s	60	North Carolina	84	W
Saint Joseph’s	66	Oklahoma	69	W
Siena	67	Vanderbilt	75	L
Oregon	70	Mississippi St.	71	W
Arkansas	66	Indiana	70	L
Boise St.	61	Louisville	79	W
Villanova	65	Clemson	71	L
Texas Arlington	55	Memphis	81	W

Round of 32
North Carolina	77	Indiana	72	W
Notre Dame	66	Washington St.	69	W
Oklahoma	61	Louisville	65	W
Butler	66	Tennessee	71	W
Kansas	76	Nevada Las Vegas	58	W
Clemson	73	Vanderbilt	68	n/a
Kansas St.	63	Wisconsin	67	W
Gonzaga	62	Georgetown	67	L
Memphis	69	Mississippi St.	60	W
Michigan St.	69	Pittsburgh	67	W
Marquette	64	Stanford	63	L
Miami FL	67	Texas	74	W
UCLA	66	Texas A&M	60	W
Drake	70	Connecticut	71	n/a
Purdue	65	Xavier	66	W
West Virginia	67	Duke	72	L

Sweet Sixteen
North Carolina	70	Washington St.	68	W
Louisville	68	Tennessee	67	W
Kansas	74	Clemson	63	W
Wisconsin	61	Georgetown	58	L
Memphis	69	Michigan St.	63	W
Marquette	67	Texas	68	W
UCLA	72	Connecticut	65	W
Xavier	69	Duke	72	L

Elite Eight
North Carolina	72	Louisville	70	W
Kansas	66	Wisconsin	61	W
Memphis	69	Texas	66	W
UCLA	71	Duke	68	W

Final Four
North Carolina	70	Kansas	78	W
Memphis	65	UCLA	66	L

Championship
Kansas	69	UCLA	65	W

Game Prediction 03/08/08

UncleLar — Sat, 08 Mar 2008 21:04:40 +0000

Wisconsin has an opportunity to wrap up the sole possession of the Big Ten regular season championship by knocking off Northwestern in Evanston today.

Wisconsin 73 Northwestern 54
Illinois 65 Minnesota 61

BTN PSU at Wisconsin Game Report

UncleLar — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 10:52:07 +0000

BTN Game Wrap-Up PSU at Wisconin

UncleLar — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 10:45:47 +0000

Four Factor Analysis Tool (PSU at Wis)

UncleLar — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 20:21:10 +0000

The thing that stands out to me in this analysis is how little difference there is in most of the bars, yet there’s a most notable difference in the records of the PSU and Wisconsin.

But then you remember the old adage, defense wins championships and it becomes very obvious why Wisconsin sits atop the Big Ten.

The effective field goal percentage of Wisconsin’s opponents is 44.6, for Penn State it’s 56.9. Wisconsin’s the best in the league, PSU is next to last (cellar dweller NW is last).

That pretty much says it all.