Hopefully this will not be the last time that I do this.

As usual our defensive field goal efficiency looks atrocious next to our opponent. One number that does stand out in PSU’s favor is the defensive FT rate. Illinois does have a tendency to send their opponents to the free throw line. Should that happen this afternoon, we’d better take more advantage of it than we normally do.

This is the most one sided analysis that I’ve published all year. Indiana wins all of the categories except two – PSU forces slightly more turnovers than Indiana does (to the tune of one tenth a game) and they don’t put opponents on the line as often (by about as thin a margin as the turnover number).

Compound that with the fact that Jamelle Cornley looks unlikely to play and PSU looks like a huge longshot to win this game. On the other hand, Indiana may come into the game on a down since they have no shot for the Big Ten title with Wisconsin’s clincher over Northwestern last night. It’s difficult to just play for an NCAA seed and the Hoosiers haven’t been playing all that well since Sampson departed.

I guess that’s why they play the games.

The thing that stands out to me in this analysis is how little difference there is in most of the bars, yet there’s a most notable difference in the records of the PSU and Wisconsin.

But then you remember the old adage, defense wins championships and it becomes very obvious why Wisconsin sits atop the Big Ten.

The effective field goal percentage of Wisconsin’s opponents is 44.6, for Penn State it’s 56.9. Wisconsin’s the best in the league, PSU is next to last (cellar dweller NW is last).

That pretty much says it all.

Given how close these two teams are in the Pomeroy (Michigan is #107 nationally, PSU is #108) and Sagarin (Michigan is #126 and PSU is #129) ranking systems, I guess it should come as no surprise that the Four Factor Analysis doesn’t uncover any huge secrets.

PSU’s effective field goal percentage is better than Michigan’s but Michigan’s effective field goal percentage defense is better. Michigan has a slight edge on the delta between the two but the net result would be less than a point a game.

Rebounding looks to be pretty even so I wouldn’t expect much of a difference between the two teams tonight.

Turnover rate’s would suggest that PSU should get about one more turnover than Michigan. Surprisingly, our field goal shooting over the last few games has finally gotten us some respectability in that area. We are actually now fourth in the conference in FT proficiency which measures a teams ability to get to the line and make free throws (undoubtedly that number is somewhat inflated by the Michigan State game at the BJC when we lived on the line). The stats suggest that we should pick up a couple of points more from the line than the Wolverines.

So, the outlook for tonight is that Michigan shoots slightly better than us but we get off more shots (because of turnovers) with the net being we both score about the same number of points from the field. The difference winds up being made foul shots and PSU wins by 2-3.

Only one thing that immediately stands out on this chart – how much worse PSU’s defensive FG efficiency is than Iowa’s. For PSU to win, that can’t happen tonight. The Nits are either going to have to step up their D or Iowa is going to have to have an off shooting night.

PSU quite often has a rebounding edge on their opponents. At first glance, the teams would look to be quite even tonight with Iowa being a better defensive rebounding team and PSU the better offensive rebounding team. Of course, that becomes an impenetrable object vs an unstoppable force scenario. The numbers give a slight edge to PSU here. Look for a 2:1 ratio to be the key factor. PSU will need to grab at least 1/3 of the available rebounds off of their boards while keeping Iowa under that number on the opposite end. That becomes even more important if the first objective is reached. If PSU is to improve their effective defensive FG percentage, then their will be more defensive boards available on Iowa’s glass. PSU can not offord to give Iowa too many second chances at scoring.

This has become a familiar theme. Penn State’s opponent, in this case Minnesota, had a definitive edge in the delta between their offensive and defensive FG%, due mainly to PSU’s absolutely horrid defense and, as usual, Penn State has an edge in their turnover rate. Minnesota, like others, also puts their opponent on the line more than PSU does.

The net result is that the story line is familiar. In order to win, PSU will need to step up their defense and hold Minnesota under 50% effective FG%. They’ll also need to protect the ball and win the turnover battle. Lastly, they must make their free throws when Minnesota puts them on the line.

Not too many surprises here. As usual, Penn State’s defensive efficiency stands out as being far worse that their opponents. In their game here in Happy Valley, PSU was surprisingly able to step up their pressure on MSU’s guards, Drew Neitzel especially, forcing MSU into a pretty poor shooting night, particularly from beyond the arc where the Spartans were just 2-14.

Another noticeable difference is the turnover rate delta. MSU gives the ball up much more than they take it away while PSU protects the ball much better, actually averaging fewer turnovers than takeaways. In Happy Valley, turnovers didn’t come into play. For PSU to win in East Lansing, PSU will probably have to win that battle.

Also, Michigan State will put you on the foul line – something they did 51 times in State College and which, almost assuredly cost them the game. You can bet that won’t happen again in East Lansing.

MSU and PSU were also even in the rebounding battle in their previous game. As much as MSU prides themselves on the boards, I would expect Tom Izzo to have made this a focal point this week. With Jamelle Cornley basically playing on one leg, I don’t see how we can match up with the Spartans on the boards this time around.

In my mind, turnovers will be the key this time around. We’ll need to win the turnover battle by a substantial margin. If we do that AND get hot shooting, we’ll have a chance.

Unfortunately, our two young guards have shown a tendency to have a deer in headlights look at the start of road games. I expect MSU to come out hard the first few minutes. Their guards, especially Nietzel, will redemption in mind and I’d expect them to try to turn the tables on Pringle and Battle. How well we weather the first few minutes will be key.

A couple of things stand out immediately.

One – Penn State’s defensive FG effectiveness is atrocious. They are just going to have to find a way to play better defense to have any chance at all. You can’t let an opponent shoot the equivalent of almost 60% against you and expect to have any chance of winning.

Two – Illinois puts their opponents on the free throw line. To win, we’ll need to take advantage of that by making free throws – something we yet to show that we can do (other than in the Michigan State game).

These stats are conference play numbers only.

Today is one of those rare occasions where we go into a conference game with a statistical advantage.

Our effective FG% is five points higher than Michigan’s and we are also five points better on effective FG% defense. When you get in a situation like that you want to maximize your possessions to take advantage of that difference, so I would expect to try to up tempo the game this afternoon. Of course, Michigan will be trying the exact opposite. They want to be more deliberate and thus minimize the possessions.

On the rebounding front, Michigan has been rebounding well on the offensive boards but not that well defensively.

Our turnovers are about even but Michigan has been effective forcing turnovers. We’ll need to make sure we take care of the ball against them. Our guards can’t come out with the deer in headlights look that they had against Purdue.

The Michigan State game did wonders for our FT proficiency numbers. We did a good job of getting to the line in that game. Unfortunately, we reverted to our old ways against Purdue. Michigan does foul often, so our free throw shooting could be important in this game. The Power Rating System predicts a one point win for us, emphasizing how important free throw shooting will be.

Now that we are half way through conference play, I am making a fundamental shift in the analysis. From this point on, the statistics behind the tool will be based entirely on conference play numbers.

A quick look at the numbers for Penn State and Purdue quickly point out the defensive deficiencies that the Nittany Lion’s have. Both teams effective field goal percentage is about the same but there is a glaring difference in the defensive numbers. Teams are shooting at 58.3% rate against Penn State which sounds almost like a lay-up drill. If the Nits are to have any chance tonight they will have to tighten up that number.

Penn State has a very slight edge on the offensive boards but a more noticeable one on the defensive glass. Staying even with MSU last Saturday without Claxton in the lineup is a good indicator that PSU could be expected to maintain that edge against the Boilermakers.

Both teams do an excellent job of protecting the ball but Purdue is much better at forcing turnovers. How well the Lions young backcourt can stand up to the very aggressive, very athletic, but equally young Purdue team will be something to keep an eye on tonight also.

Lastly, the 51 free throws shot by PSU against MSU has moved them out of the bottom of the B10 free throw shooting pack. While I certainly don’t expect those kinds of numbers tonight, Purdue does foul a lot while PSU’s soft zone fouls very little, so, if the Lions can stay aggressive on offense, they may, in fact, be able to pull off an edge in the free throw department tonight.

While Purdue is a formidable foe, tonight’s task doesn’t look quite as Herculean as it did just four days ago.