Happy Valley Hoops » Game Predictions

Full tournament recap of game predictions.

UncleLar — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 05:45:46 +0000

Here’s a round by round recap of my predictions for the tournament:

16-0 on the first day
10-6 on day two
14-2 in the Round of 32
7-1 for the Sweet Sixteen
4-0 for the Elite Eight
1-1 in the semifinals
1-0 in the championship game
53-10 overall

And the winning entry in the two pools that I entered. One for bragging rights, one for cash (small pool – only $80 to the winner – five places get paid).

Against the odds (recap)

UncleLar — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 05:40:35 +0000

Final record for my pics during the tournament was 13-8. It’s a shame I didn’t put my money where my mouth is. Thirteen wins out of 21 games would have earned me a pretty penny in Vegas, particularly if I had varied the amount bet based on my predicted confidence level, since my top five picks were all winners.

Look for this to probably be a regular feature in my blog for all Big Ten games next season. I’m very curious on how the numbers might play out over the course of the season. In fact, over the summer I just might go back and see how the numbers would have played out this past year.

Here’s the details in declining order of my confidence in the picks.

Wisconsin over Cal St-Fullerton by 11.5 – pick Wisconsin (8.5) – win
North Carolina over Kansas by 4.0 – pick Kansas (8.0) – win
Memphis over Kansas by 2.0 – pick Kansas (5.0) – win
Texas over Austin Peay by 16.5 – pick Texas (4.7) – win
Louisville over Boise St by 13.5 – pick Louisville (4.7) – win
North Carlina over Louisville by 6.5 – pick Louisville (4.7) – loss
Southern Cal over Kansas St by 2.0 – pick Kansas St (4.5) – win
Duke over Belmont by 19.5 – pick Duke (4.4) – loss
UCLA over Miss Valley St by 32 – pick UCLA (3.9) – win
North Carolina over Arkansas by 12 – pick Arkansas (3.9) – loss
Kansas over Villanova by 12.0 – pick Kansas (3.8) – win
Xavier over Georgia by 7.5 – pick Xavier (3.8) – win
UCLA over Texas A&M by 10.5 – pick A&M (3.8) – loss
Wisconsin over Davidson by 5.0 – pick Wisconsin (3.7) – loss
Pitt over Michigan St by 2.5 – pick Michigan St (3.6) – win
Pitt over Oral Roberts by 10.0 – pick Oral Roberts (3.6) – loss
Davidson over Gonzaga by 2.0 – pick Gonzaga (3.4) – loss
Kansas over UNLV by 13.0 – pick Kansas (3.2) – win
Kent St over UNLV by 2.0 – pick UNLV (3.2) – win
Kentucky over Marquette by 4.5 – pick Kentucky (3.1) – loss
Washington St over Winthrop by 8.5 – pick Wash St (3.1) – win

Against the odds (championship game)

UncleLar — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 20:13:53 +0000

My UncleLar Lock of the Tournament pick of Kansas over Carolina moves me to 12-8 with my picks for the tournament. My picks have been so successful that I’m probably going to make this a regular feature for all Big Ten games next season.

Vegas has installed Memphis as a two point favorite. If you’ve read my game pick, you already know that I like Kansas in this game by three. That meets my three point delta requirement so Kansas becomes an UncleLar pick once again.

The line:

Memphis over Kansas by 2.0 – pick Kansas (5.0) – win

Championship Game Prediction

UncleLar — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 20:04:12 +0000

Here’s a recap of my results so far.

16-0 on the first day
10-6 on day two
14-2 in the Round of 32
7-1 for the Sweet Sixteen
4-0 for the Elite Eight
1-1 in the semifinals
52-10 overall

Pretty decent record, if I do say so. I’ve already locked up a win in one pool that I’m in, but need Kansas to win to take the crown in the other (this one awards 32 points per round, so you can make up a lot of ground late).

For the finals, I like Kansas.

The actual prediction:

Kansas 70 Memphis 67 – W

Against the Odds (Final Four Edition)

UncleLar — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 16:50:15 +0000

My sole prediction in the Elite Eight went down the tubes so I currently sit at 11-8 against the spread.

Since the bookies have installed North Carolina as a four point favorite and I have Kansas winning by four, this would be close to the UncleLar Lock of the Tournament. This is the second biggest delta that I’ve had for the entire tournament.

For the record, the biggest previous delta was my Wisconsin pick over Cal-St Fullerton in the opening round. Wisconsin was favored by 11.5, I had them winning by 20 for and 8.5 point delta, and they actually won by 15 for a win for the good guys.

North Carolina over Kansas by 4.0 – pick Kansas (8.0) – won

Final Four Predictions

UncleLar — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 16:32:40 +0000

My prediction juggernaut rolled on with a perfect Elite eight:

16-0 on the first day
10-6 on day two
14-2 in the Round of 32
7-1 for the Sweet Sixteen
4-0 for the Elite Eight
51-9 overall

Memphis has improved their power rankings to almost draw dead even with UCLA. I have the Bruins as a slight favorite over Memphis.

Game Predictions

Kansas 77 North Carolina 73 – win
UCLA 65.8 Memphis 65.5 – loss

Against the Odds (Elite Eight)

UncleLar — Sat, 29 Mar 2008 17:43:47 +0000

I went 1-1 for the Sweet Sixteen round which takes my overall record to a healthy 11-7 against the odds. Only one game of the four in the Elite Eight meets my three point delta criteria. The bookies have installed North Carolina as a 6.5 favorite. My power rating has them at only a 1.8 point favorite. That 4.7 point difference says book Louisville.

North Carlina over Louisville by 6.5 – pick Louisville (4.7) – loss

Elite Eight Game Predictions

UncleLar — Sat, 29 Mar 2008 17:12:30 +0000

I’ve continued on my hot streak:

16-0 on the first day
10-6 on day two
14-2 in the Round of 32
7-1 for the Sweet Sixteen
47-9 overall

My predictions for the rest of the weekend:

Elite Eight
North Carolina	72	Louisville	70	W
Kansas	76	Davidson	65	W
Memphis	71	Texas	68	W
UCLA	68	Xavier	63	W

Against the Odds (Sweet Sixteen)

UncleLar — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 17:41:51 +0000

I’m just as thrilled with my predictions against the spread as I am with my pure winners picks. So far my predictions are 10-6 against the spread. I arbitrarily chose a three point delta between my projection and the Vegas spread to be the point at which I would elect to make a call on the game. While 10-6 is quite successful, what’s particularly interesting is that I am 4-1 when my prediction is four points better than the spread. Perhaps that should have been my cutoff (I could call them my “UncleLar Locks”). That’s worth keeping an additional eye on this weekend.

Two games meet my aforementioned three point criteria.

They are:

Kansas over Villanova by 12.0 – pick Kansas (3.8) – win
Wisconsin over Davidson by 5.0 – pick Wisconsin (3.7) – loss

Sweet Sixteen Game Predictions

UncleLar — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 17:06:22 +0000

I’m absolutely thrilled the way the predictions have gone so far.

16-0 on the first day
10-6 on day two
14-2 in the Round of 32
40-8 overall

I’m looking forward to seeing how the Sweet Sixteen play out.

Here are the picks:

Sweet Sixteen
North Carolina	71	Washington St.	69	W
Louisville	69	Tennessee	67	W
Kansas	77	Villanova	62	W
Wisconsin	68	Davidson	59	L
Memphis	68	Michigan St.	64	W
Stanford	66.7	Texas	67.0	W
UCLA	73	Western Kentucky	59	W
Xavier	67.0	West Virginia	66.6	W