Happy Valley Hoops » Denver http://www.happyvalleyhoops.com a Penn State basketball blog with an APBRmetrics twist Thu, 22 Oct 2009 01:14:59 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 Game Predictions 12/15/07 http://www.happyvalleyhoops.com/2007/12/15/game-predictions-121507/ http://www.happyvalleyhoops.com/2007/12/15/game-predictions-121507/#comments Sat, 15 Dec 2007 17:18:02 +0000 UncleLar http://www.happyvalleyhoops.com/?p=50 Crystal BallPurdue at Louisville highlights today’s slate.

  • Indiana 87 W Carolina 55
  • Michigan 73 Central Mich 66
  • MSU 86 IUPU-Fort Wayne 60
  • Ohio State 75 Presbyterian 51
  • PSU 72 Denver 54
  • Louisville 66 Purdue 59
  • Wisconsin 82 Wis-GB 53

Note: My prediction algorithm is based on Ken Pomeroy offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. I use my own methodology to tweak his ratings based on where the game is being played, then calculate a predicted score using the adjusted efficiency ratings and the expected pace of the game.

]]> http://www.happyvalleyhoops.com/2007/12/15/game-predictions-121507/feed/ 1 And you thought Princeton was slow? http://www.happyvalleyhoops.com/2007/12/15/and-you-thought-princeton-was-slow/ http://www.happyvalleyhoops.com/2007/12/15/and-you-thought-princeton-was-slow/#comments Sat, 15 Dec 2007 17:12:21 +0000 UncleLar http://www.happyvalleyhoops.com/?p=49 Denver logo
Prior to the Princeton game I talked about what a slow team they were (see Just how deliberate is Princeton? at a pace of 60.3 possessions per game. Well, Denver rolls, or should I say “crawls”, into the BJC dead last in the country at pace of 56.9. Zzzzzz.When you break apart their offense you do see the traditional characteristics of a Princeton style team (even more so than Princeton itself exhibited).

Here’s their scoring breakdown:
Denver Scoring Breakdown

Denver scores more from the line than Princeton did because they are one, better at getting there, and two, much better at shooting free throws (Princeton was one of only a handful of teams that’s worse than us from the line).

Like most Princeton style teams, they take lots of threes (second in the country in percentage of shots that are three pointers – 51.7%) along with a lot of ball movement (third in the country in assists per made FG – 72.1%).

The Pioneers also have one traditional Princeton offense factor that was missing from this year’s Princeton team – a center who can float out beyond the arc and make a three ball (Adam Tanner who is taking 2 or 3 per game from out there and hitting about 35%).

There’s two guys on the team we should look out for. The real threat appears to be #11 Kyle Lewis who is tied for the team lead in three pointers attempted and who makes them at a deadly rate – 50%. But I’m going to suggest that the guy we need to worry about is #5 Tyler Bullock. Tyler has shown a willingness to take threes, 23 on the season, but has been shooting badly, only 26%. For some reason, some unknown player always seems to have a career game against us and Tyler looks like he could be the guy.

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