Plus/Minus Standings

This is my first report using the new Player Plus Minus System. The results seem to be more consistent with most people’s opinions of the play of the players involved, so I think this passes the sniff test.

[table=17]

Cornley now moves to the top of the plus/minus list with 10 positive games and only two negative ones. The top five in order are: Cornley, Battle, Claxton, Walker, and Morrissey. Battle has been steadily progressing his way up the plus/minus charts and it shows here.

Here’s a quick snapshot of the meaning of the terms in this Plus Minus System chart.

PM Rating is the sum total of the individual game minus scores. The game plus minus score is the difference between the delta scoring of the teams while the player was on the floor and the delta scoring while he was off.

G+ is the number of games where a player had a positive plus/minus game score.

G- is the number of games here a player had a negative plus/minus game score.

G% is the percent of all games played that were positive plus/minus games.

PM Rating per game is the PM rating divided by the number of games that the player participated in.

PM

Note: This is an interactive chart and these columns are sortable simply by clicking on the column header.

One of the issues with the simple plus/minus raw number that I have been reporting is that it can be completely blown out of proportion by one lopsided game. Racking up a huge positive number in any one game can mask many negative performances in other games. For example, every player in the Canisius game recorded a positive number from 18 to 37 points. There’s little doubt that some of the guys season long numbers are heavily waited by that one game – that’s a problem.

What the plus/minus raw number that I have traditionally been reporting represents is how the team did while the player was on the floor. It says nothing about how the team did with the player OFF the floor. The team might be scoring at a plus margin with the player in the game but at an even better margin with him out. You couldn’t tell that from the old way of calculating the number.

The new Plus/Minus Rating number will compensate for that. Simply put, it’s the points delta for the team while the player is on the floor minus the points delta for the team while the player is OFF the floor. If a team plays better with the player off the floor he will have a negative Plus/Minus Rating for that game.

I will report a players Plus/Minus Rating for every game plus total the game ratings to give a Net Score for the season. I’ll also calculate the Net Score per game to balance out the numbers for situations where a player didn’t get into a game.

One thing to keep in mind with this number is that it is really measures what a player does compared to what his replacements do. It shouldn’t necessarily be used to compare two players. However, a player with a large plus number is performing better than his replacements and should be considered a candidate for more playing time while a player with a negative number perhaps should have his time reduced.

I’m also going to make a nomenclature change. In the reports that I’ve presented in the past, I’ve calculated what I called the plus/minus winning percentage. If a player had a positive plus/minus number for a game he was credited for a “win” in my winning percentage calculation (a negative number equated to a loss and a net zero for the game was calculated as half a win and half a loss). I’m going to do the same percentage calculation based on the new version of the plus minus but will no longer use the confusing term “winning percentage”. Rather I’ll refer to the as Plus Games and Minus Games (abbreviated G+ and G-). The percent of games that are Plus Games will be abbreviated as G%.

I will definitely be reporting the individual plus/minus games using this new methodology and will probably do the same for the pairs analysis (I’m still playing with the spreadsheets for the pairs).

With two road scalps in hand, Indiana claims sole position of first place in the plus/minus standings. Penn State gave back one of their scalps by blowing a 16 point second half lead over Minnesota at home.

The Big Ten +/- Standings

The concept is simple. It’s based on the theory that you should protect your home court. Failure to do so, costs you a point. Winning a game on the road, on the other hand, earns you a point.

During the course of a a season the +/- standings will likely vary a little from the usual standings but it will give you a better feel for who is winning those all important road games. At the end of the season, the +/- standings will equate to the usual standings.

Here’s the first report.

I won’t bother to file regular reports but will carry the standings in the sidebar.

Individual Plus/Minus numbers

Solid effort by Morrissey in this game. He’s the one that got the team going in the second half with a couple of nice defensive plays (taking the charge under the basket and then diving on the floor to get a jump ball tie up) that were followed by a couple of quick baskets (a fast break off a steal by Battle and a spot up three ball on a semi break).

Pairs (plus minus numbers)

This bar chart shows the complete set of the plus/minus numbers.
Select any individual player on the left to see just his pairings (the bar where he is paired with himself represents his individual +/- number for the game.
Ctl-shft to select any combination of players to compare.

Pairs (minutes played)

Pairs (+/- per minute numbers)

[table=10]

[table=11]

[table=12]

Here’s the plus minus number for Penn State for the Colgate game:

[table=8]

The cream of the crop, Claxton and Cornley, led the charge in this game. Mike Walker once again comes up with very solid plus minus numbers.

[table=9]

Since everyone was on the plus side of the board today, each player picked up one whole game in the win column and the relative order of all remained the same. Mike Walker continues to lead the pack in the 40 min projection.

Player numbers for the St Francis game.

[TABLE=2]

Observations:

• Early bursts by the Penn State offense are giving Walker and Morrissey a positive head start on their +/- numbers.
• Battle had a decent scoring debut for a freshman playing in his first game.