Hopefully this will not be the last time that I do this.

As usual our defensive field goal efficiency looks atrocious next to our opponent. One number that does stand out in PSU’s favor is the defensive FT rate. Illinois does have a tendency to send their opponents to the free throw line. Should that happen this afternoon, we’d better take more advantage of it than we normally do.

This is the most one sided analysis that I’ve published all year. Indiana wins all of the categories except two - PSU forces slightly more turnovers than Indiana does (to the tune of one tenth a game) and they don’t put opponents on the line as often (by about as thin a margin as the turnover number).

Compound that with the fact that Jamelle Cornley looks unlikely to play and PSU looks like a huge longshot to win this game. On the other hand, Indiana may come into the game on a down since they have no shot for the Big Ten title with Wisconsin’s clincher over Northwestern last night. It’s difficult to just play for an NCAA seed and the Hoosiers haven’t been playing all that well since Sampson departed.

I guess that’s why they play the games.

An interesting subject came up on PennStateHoops.com. People were asking how Talor Battle’s freshman season compared to Joe Crispin’s. After some digging around I was able to find stats for Joe’s freshman year so I threw together this visualization.

The two are basically dead even in scoring, with Battle a slightly higher per game average but Crispin having a small edge on a projected 40 minute basis. Crispin was the better shooter, particularly from the free throw line, while Battle has a decisive edge in rebounding. Crispin has the better assist numbers but Battle the better assist to turnover ratio. Battle has the edge in steals.

All in all the two are pretty even. Here’s hoping Battle progresses as well as Joe did during his career. I think the PSU fans would be quite happy with a Sweet Sixteen run as a cap to Battle’s career.

Given how close these two teams are in the Pomeroy (Michigan is #107 nationally, PSU is #108) and Sagarin (Michigan is #126 and PSU is #129) ranking systems, I guess it should come as no surprise that the Four Factor Analysis doesn’t uncover any huge secrets.

PSU’s effective field goal percentage is better than Michigan’s but Michigan’s effective field goal percentage defense is better. Michigan has a slight edge on the delta between the two but the net result would be less than a point a game.

Rebounding looks to be pretty even so I wouldn’t expect much of a difference between the two teams tonight.

Turnover rate’s would suggest that PSU should get about one more turnover than Michigan. Surprisingly, our field goal shooting over the last few games has finally gotten us some respectability in that area. We are actually now fourth in the conference in FT proficiency which measures a teams ability to get to the line and make free throws (undoubtedly that number is somewhat inflated by the Michigan State game at the BJC when we lived on the line). The stats suggest that we should pick up a couple of points more from the line than the Wolverines.

So, the outlook for tonight is that Michigan shoots slightly better than us but we get off more shots (because of turnovers) with the net being we both score about the same number of points from the field. The difference winds up being made foul shots and PSU wins by 2-3.

Only one thing that immediately stands out on this chart - how much worse PSU’s defensive FG efficiency is than Iowa’s. For PSU to win, that can’t happen tonight. The Nits are either going to have to step up their D or Iowa is going to have to have an off shooting night.

PSU quite often has a rebounding edge on their opponents. At first glance, the teams would look to be quite even tonight with Iowa being a better defensive rebounding team and PSU the better offensive rebounding team. Of course, that becomes an impenetrable object vs an unstoppable force scenario. The numbers give a slight edge to PSU here. Look for a 2:1 ratio to be the key factor. PSU will need to grab at least 1/3 of the available rebounds off of their boards while keeping Iowa under that number on the opposite end. That becomes even more important if the first objective is reached. If PSU is to improve their effective defensive FG percentage, then their will be more defensive boards available on Iowa’s glass. PSU can not offord to give Iowa too many second chances at scoring.